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Saturday, August 27, 2005

Iran

Now I don’t want to cause alarm, but there are certain aspects of the Iranian nuclear programme which really could bare closer inspection.

I suspect you are alarmed now, most likely you are thinking ‘oh god he’s going to talk about Iranian nuclear ambitions and I know slightly less than zilch on the subject.’ That’s ok, I know you have enough to do just keeping up with Big Brother, that’s exactly why I am going to talk about it. That, and it actually is important.

Ali Larijani is the man to watch, he is the right hand of Khamenei and he has been badgering Albion, Germany and France recently over our views on Iranian atomic development.

Specifically we (the UK, Germany and France, acting on behalf of the EU) have expressed concerns over plans to build one or more Westinghouse type breeders, and hexafluoride centrifuges to generate enriched uranium for ‘peaceful purposes’. Larijani insists that Iran has the right to do these things, and as far as right goes, he probably is. Our quibble is the eventual use to which enriched uranium might be put.

From an unbiased perspective one can see why Iran desires nuclear weapons. Believe me every time I watch the ten o’clock news I start desiring a bomb or two m’self, it is an unsafe world and deterrents are tempting, nay necessary.

Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad – Iranian president and world-beating scrabble score insists that the only goal is energy, but he would, and as I say, we can hardly blame Iran for wanting a nuclear deterrent. However, the operative word is ‘deterrent’.

Larijani has threatened to go over the EU’s head straight to the International Atomic Energy Association, but that ain’t going to happen because the US dominates the IAEA and there’s no way on god’s green that the States will let Iran have nukes (they no-longer arm their future enemies, lesson learned, eh brother Jonathan). Alternatively, Iran may enter negotiations with South Africa, but it is difficult to see why, when there is so little to gain, and so much to loose should they snub the EU.

Besides which Larijani actually used the phrase ‘Nuclear Apartheid’ in a speech and that’s not they way to win the South African’s friendship.

The earlier threatened economic sanctions seem unlikely at this stage of the game and it is difficult to discount the internet rumour to the effect that France and Germany (Albion too, if not our leaders) actually want Iran to have a deterrent with which to deter the big friendly dog across the pond.

You’ll call me a cynic, but such a policy would work, and better than ‘diplomacy’, no?

In any event, at least you know a little about Iran now, my work here is done…
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